Nothing lasts forever, except for maybe November rain in Venezuela

05/01/2011

Over the past few months I’ve seen firsthand the damage uncharacteristically torrential rains have inflicted on Colombia: mudslides that killed hundreds and displaced millions, massive road closures, declared states of emergency in 28 of the 32 departments, and a President who sought every tool at his disposal to help his people, democratically; in neighboring Venezuela, where flooding has also taken its toll, the emergency measures President Chávez has used to 'help' victims have been unmistakably…dictatorial.

You were right, Axl, even November (and let me add December) rain don’t last forever, but if you manipulate the weather enough, you truly don’t need a weatherman to tell you which way the wind blows, or the rain falls.

The United States swore in its 112th Congress today, as did Venezuela. The difference is that Jim Boehner and the Republicans are proof of what happens in a democracy with a functioning opposition. In Venezuela on the other hand, where newly elected opposition members also took their seats on this 5th day of January, they’ve found themselves redundant. And all thanks to the rain...

Since Chavez’s gerrymandering led to the Venezuelan opposition winning only 67 seats in the September legislative elections (ok, technically 69 if you count the two won by the PPT) —much less than what they should’ve come away with, but enough to disrupt his ‘Bolivarian’ plan, the race has been on for him to secure as much dictatorial power in those final three months as possible.

Back in September I wrote, “The PSUV maintains its majority till January, which means they’ll be eager to make as much use of it as they can.”

It wasn’t a prescient observation; the writing was on the wall.

So yeah—God bless the rain.

A little review of what’s happened since—well, the most egregious developments, anyway:

Everything begins with the Enabling Law—a little tool Chávez has used before when he felt the need to rule by decree, though I’d argue never with such exuberance, such panache.

For one thing, those newly elected opposition members, and let’s just limit them to the MUD (la Mesa de la Unidad Democrática)—well, it doesn’t seem they’ll be working too much.

No more than 4 days a month, to be exact.

And I thought Canadian MPs had it easy.

They also won’t be able to switch parties thanks to changes to the Political Party Law, which now prevents it.

Some see this as an obvious attempt to corral discontent in the PSUV...

Ya think?

The appointment of Supreme Court Judges, which as you would expect is supposed to require a modicum of agreement with the opposition, well, that was expedited in order to avoid any pesky disagreements.

The changes to the Law for the Defense of National Sovereignty and Self-Determination have made it so that all NGOs will be barred from receiving any foreign financing. I presume aid in-kind, like say, Cuban doctors, won’t be subject. So at least Mission Barrio Adentro continues.

The amendments to the University Education Law end the autonomy of the main universities by obliging them to be at the service of the “construction of the new socialist model”. What? Yeah, ok, I don’t really know what that means either. I imagine this semester’s term paper topics will be a bit more limited, though.

The Social Responsibility in Radio and Television Law is intended to limit criticism of the government, loosely modeled I presume, on the incredibly effective Chinese paradigm.

Finally, the Banking Institutions Law grants the President the authority to intervene in the financial system as he sees fit. Venezuela officially ended their two-tiered exchange rate yesterday, so it appears the games at the Central Bank have already begun.

As one MUD representative, María Corina Machado, observed: “In Venezuela there’s a coup d’état coming from the state itself.”

The heavy rain has stopped, but the Enabling Law will allow Chávez to rule by decree till June 2012.

Is it reasonable to believe the 2012 Presidential elections will even be close to as fair as this September’s legislative elections?

At the risk of sounding cynical, maybe November rain does last forever.